Alberta Grid Model

Computer Model of the Alberta Electricity Grid

This model is based on the Alberta Electrical Grid as it existed on Jan 25, 2021.
Download your own copy. Link (Requires MS Excel) - Challenge: Replace all Coal & Natural gas with Wind and/or Solar.

Basic data includes:

Current population, population growth estimates, vehicles registered in Alberta, EVs registered in Alberta.
Current energy generation sources, demonstrated capacity factors and proven performance.
Wind and Solar capacity factors are Real-Time energy production during the 14 day period Jan 25, 2021 through Feb 7, 2021 Source

Base Case: The Alberta Grid as it was in Jan/Feb 2021

Coal Generation (67% of Installed Capacity).
Natural Gas Generation is at 70% of installed capacity.
Fossil Fuels (Coal + Natural Gas) as effectively controlling Voltage and Frequency of the Grid.
Wind Generation is at 13% of installed capacity. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 98%. Solar Generation is insignificant at 0.7% of installed capacity.

Scenario 1 - Replace Coal Fired Generation with Solar and Wind

Coal Generation has been eliminated.
Natural Gas Generation is at 75 % of installed capacity. Because it frequently reaches maximum output, Voltage and Frequency control FAILS.
Wind Generation nameplate capacity has been increased 800% from 1781 Mwatts to 14248 Mwatts (6,926 Turbines Added) but remains at 13% of installed capacity. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 98%.
Solar Generation nameplate capacity has been increased 800% from 107 Mwatts to 856 Mwatts (1,971,053 Panels Added) but remains at 0.7% of installed capacity. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 48%.
When Total Generation is unable to meet Demand, Voltage and Frequency goes off spec. The Grid operator must shut down parts of the Grid to prevent a complete collapse.

Scenario 2 - 75% of Coal Shut In with 50% EVs on Alberta Roads. Wind Generation capacity increased to provide additional generation.

50% of light and medium duty vehicles registered in Alberta are EVs.
Coal Generation capacity has been reduced by 75%.
Natural Gas Generation is at 73 % of installed capacity. Because NG Demand exceeds Capacity, Voltage and Frequency control FAILS.
Wind Generation nameplate capacity has been increased 900% from 1781 Mwatts to 16,029 Mwatts (7,916 Turbines Added) but remains at 13% of installed capacity. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 98%.
Solar Generation nameplate capacity has not been changed. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 48%.
When Total Generation is unable to meet Demand, Voltage and Frequency goes off spec. The Grid operator must shut down parts of the Grid to prevent a complete collapse.

Scenario 3a - NetZero 2050. All (100%) Light and Medium Duty Vehicles are Electric.

All Fossil Fuel Generation Eliminated (Except Cogen). Wind & Solar Generation increased by 4000%.
Hydro and Biomass Generation Increased in an attempt to maintain Grid Stability.

All fossil fuel generation has been eliminated.
All light and medium duty vehicles (100%) under 4500 kg are EVs.
Wind Generation nameplate capacity has been increased 4000% from 1,781 Mwatts to 71,240 Mwatts (38,588 Turbines Added) but produce only 7% of installed capacity. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 98%.
Solar Generation nameplate capacity has been increased 4000% from 107 Mwatts (281,579 to 4280 Mwatts (10,981,579 Panels Added) but remains at 0.7% of installed capacity. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 48%.
Biomass Generation has been increased 300%. Limited by environmental concerns over ecosystem destruction from tree harvesting.
Hydro Generation has been doubled. Limited by lack of suitable sites in Alberta and environmental concerns.
Nuclear is not used due to the expected opposition from environmentalists and fear by the general population.
No reduction in Cogen as it would increase emissions from commercial and industrial sources.

GRID is Unstable. Wind and Solar Alone can NOT replace Fossil Fuel Generation.

Scenario 3b - NetZero 2050. All (100%) Light and Medium Duty Vehicles are Electric.

All Fossil Fuel Generation Eliminated (Except Cogen). Energy Storage added to support Wind & Solar Generation.
Hydro and Biomass Generation Increased in an attempt to maintain Grid Stability.

All fossil fuel generation has been eliminated.
All light and medium duty vehicles (100%) under 4500 kg are EVs.
Wind Generation nameplate capacity has been increased 3500% from 1,781 Mwatts to 62,335 Mwatts (33,641 Turbines Added) producing 9% of installed capacity. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 98%.
Solar Generation nameplate capacity has been increased 2000% from 107 Mwatts to 2140 Mwatts (5,350,000 Panels) but remains at 0.7% of installed capacity. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 48%.
2,000,000 Mwatts of Energy Storage has been added to support Wind & Solar. This amount of storage discharging for this long has never been demonstrated. At a future cost of $458,800/Mw, the Total Installed Cost would be $0.92 Trillion.
Biomass Generation has been increased 300%. Limited by environmental concerns over ecosystem destruction from tree harvesting.
Hydro Generation has been doubled. Limited by lack of suitable sites in Alberta and environmental concerns.
Nuclear is not used due to the expected opposition from environmentalists and fear by the general population.
No reduction in Cogen as it would increase emissions from commercial and industrial sources.

GRID is Unstable. Wind and Solar Alone can NOT replace Fossil Fuel Generation even with Energy Storage.

Scenario 3c - NetZero 2050. All (100%) Light and Medium Duty Vehicles are Electric. Nuclear is added.

All Fossil Fuel Generation Eliminated (Except Cogen). Wind Generation increased by 500%.
Nuclear, Hydro and/or Biomass Generation Increased to Ensure Grid Stability.

All fossil fuel generation has been eliminated.
All light and medium duty vehicles (100%) under 4500 kg are EVs.
Wind Generation nameplate capacity has been increased 500% from 1,781 Mwatts to 8,905 Mwatts (3,958 Turbines) producing 13% of installed capacity. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 98%.
Solar Generation nameplate capacity has not been changed. Hour-to-hour generation ranged from 0% to 48%.
Wind and Solar are redundant as they do not contribute to Total Generation. Why install once low emission source for another?
Biomass Generation has been increased 300%. Limited by environmental concerns over ecosystem destruction from tree harvesting.
Hydro Generation has been doubled. Limited by lack of suitable sites in Alberta and environmental concerns.
No reduction in Cogen as it would increase emissions from commercial and industrial sources.
Nuclear has been added to the mix. It requires 14,000 Mwatts to maintain Grid Stability.
Note: Nuclear plants will require modifications to effectively control Grid Voltage & Frequency.

Nuclear is the Only Viable Option to Replace Fossil Fuels with Renewables.

About this Model

The basis for the model is the Alberta Electricity Grid as it existed on Feb 1, 2021.

All generation sources are accounted for.
Nameplate Capacities are represented correctly. Realistic Service Factors are applied to account for downtime for maintenance or equipment failure.
Demand in 2021 is from the Alberta Grid. Population projections and therefore demand is based on Stats Canada 2016 values and 2050 projections.
The number of Electric Vehicles (EVs) are accurately represented based on 2016/2019 vehicle registrations.

Demand is calculated based on the following.

Base demand is the 2021 actual average.
Demand is increased proportionally to estimated population growth.
A weather factor can be added to simulate an increase in demand during the later part of the period.
Charging of EVs is added to demand based on population and percent of EVs registered in Alberta.

The following priorities are applied to meet Grid Demand.

All Wind and Solar is applied first. The generation profile is from real-time data collected from the Grid between Feb 1, 2021 and Feb 8, 2021.
Cogen is maximized as it reduces GHG emissions from commercial and industrial producers.
Nuclear can be added. If available, it is considered baseload and will be applied to meet remaining demand. It is assumed that it can be modulated to control Voltage & Frequency if required.
Hydro and Biomass are then applied. They are considered baseload, but can modulate to control Voltage & Frequency if required.
Coal and Natural Gas are then applied. The model attempts to modulate coal to keep natural gas generation within a reasonable range of control. These are the primary sources used to control Voltage & Frequency and therefore maintain Grid stability.
If additional energy is required to meet demand, the model attempts to import it within the constraints of interconnect capability.
If surplus energy remains after demand is met, the model attempts to export it within the constraints of interconnect capability.